{ "schemaVersion": 1, "version": "2026-09-29.2", "dataKind": "synthetic_planning_sample", "source": { "dataKind": "synthetic_planning_sample", "rows": 240, "sha256": "bb95c42781e6ea259d2d4e0d49a2b434ca4dad358f2435ac53a0b2b5dd931cf4", "sampleCsv": "/duck-yeah/history-kit/sample.csv", "snapshotAt": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z", "decisionDay": 3, "outcomeDay": 28, "timeAvailableEvidence": "Email-program eligibility, company fit and product evidence must be available by trial day 3. Program eligibility comes from an established, dated company-policy result. Task and intent only describe what was known then; historical outcomes never enter eligibility.", "boundary": "Separate authored planning sample; not MotherDuck customers, actual company volume, or the frozen experiment corpus." }, "verifiedExecution": { "engine": "motherduck", "label": "Read-only sample replay verified in MotherDuck", "warehouseWrites": 0, "verifiedAt": "2026-09-30T00:16:55.044799Z", "database": "duck_yeah_demo", "querySha256": "482d366b5950dcd2087e8a2b0f2fd63836a36428c7606873a81a8401a5494b08", "rowCount": 1, "matchesLocal": true }, "play": { "id": "day-3-relevant-assistance", "title": "Offer the next useful step in a trial", "decision": "At trial day 3, offer relevant assistance through the existing onboarding email program. Use task and intent signals to choose self-serve help or a team-evaluation offer.", "eligibilityRules": [ "The established email-program policy marks the account eligible by day 3", "Company fit is established by day 3", "A first query against its own data is available by day 3" ], "segmentRules": "A stated task or evaluation intent can shape the offer and review priority. Neither is required to receive relevant assistance. An explicit lack of evaluation intent favors self-serve help; suppression prevents program contact.", "qualificationDefinition": "Sales confirms company fit, a real team use case, and an agreed next step. A reply, enrichment match or booking alone does not qualify." }, "history": { "totalAccounts": 240, "period": { "start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "end": "2026-04-28T21:12:00Z", "enrollmentDays": 28, "weeks": 4.0 }, "eligibleAccounts": 160, "heldAccounts": 80, "exclusions": [ { "reason": "company_fit_not_established", "label": "Company fit was not established", "accounts": 20 }, { "reason": "email_eligibility_not_established", "label": "Email-program eligibility was not established", "accounts": 20 }, { "reason": "email_suppressed", "label": "Suppressed from this email program", "accounts": 20 }, { "reason": "product_evidence_not_ready", "label": "A first own-data query was not available by day 3", "accounts": 20 } ], "matureEligibleAccounts": 160, "historicalQualifiedAccounts": 14, "historicalQualificationRate": 0.0875, "unresolvedEligibleOutcomes": 0, "segments": { "teamTaskAtDecision": { "other": 20, "unknown": 20, "recurring_analysis": 120 }, "evaluationIntentAtDecision": { "unknown": 40, "yes": 100, "no": 20 }, "boundary": "Counts among eligible accounts using only signals available by day 3. These overlapping descriptions do not create additional eligibility gates or establish which offer works." }, "eligiblePerWeek": 40.0, "invalidInputAccounts": 0, "rateBoundary": "Observed qualification among eligible accounts with complete 28-day follow-up; neither a control arm nor the effect of this proposed assistance." }, "defaults": { "upliftPercentagePoints": 5, "reviewMinutesPerCandidate": 15, "availableReviewHours": 12, "practicalExtraQualifiedAccounts": 5 }, "model": { "additionalQualifiedAccounts": 8.0, "grossReviewHours": 40.0, "reviewCapacityAccounts": 48, "withinReviewCapacity": false, "modeledQualificationRate": 0.1375, "requiredUpliftPercentagePoints": 3.125, "boundary": "Arithmetic under editable assumptions, not an estimated treatment effect or forecast. Review time covers all candidates; enrichment, contact and meeting time are additional.", "status": "ready" }, "nextExperiment": { "status": "Proposed brief; sample size and guardrail thresholds require real baseline and capacity decisions before launch", "hypothesis": "Choosing relevant day-3 assistance from available task and intent signals improves 28-day Sales qualification versus the current onboarding message among eligible trial accounts.", "comparison": "Randomize eligible accounts before contact, one account per arm, current onboarding message versus relevant assistance selected by a fixed rule. Offer self-serve help when a Sales conversation is not wanted; use a team-evaluation offer where the context supports it. Match contact opportunities and analyze all assigned accounts.", "metric": "Share of assigned eligible accounts that become Sales-qualified by trial day 28", "guardrails": [ "Product activation and continued use", "Contact opt-outs and complaints", "Review and meeting time per assigned account", "Recheck current program eligibility before sending; suppress ineligible accounts" ], "samplePlan": "Use the mapped historical rate and arrival volume to set the minimum worthwhile difference, guardrail margins, sample size, enrollment cap and follow-up window before launch. Validate operating characteristics jointly. This 240-row fixture does not supply a production sample-size recommendation.", "nextByResult": { "supported": { "meaning": "A planned comparison supports worthwhile improvement and the guardrails pass.", "action": "Have Ops reproduce the play in one bounded expansion, retaining a comparison and quality/capacity checks. Next test: whether a shorter preparation step preserves qualification while reducing review effort." }, "notSupported": { "meaning": "A sufficiently informative comparison rules out worthwhile improvement, or a guardrail shows unacceptable harm.", "action": "Retire this version and review the leading rejection or friction reason. If teams want product help but see no value in a Sales conversation, next test a self-serve team-use walkthrough against current help, with its own product-use outcome and protections. Other causes need a different revision." }, "inconclusive": { "meaning": "The result still permits both a worthwhile gain and too little benefit, or a guardrail remains uncertain.", "action": "Do not scale or label it a loss. Check missing data and delivery first. Continue only within the enrollment and stopping plan agreed in advance; otherwise close as unresolved and design the next study around what can be learned at available volume." } } }, "kit": { "candidateSql": "/duck-yeah/source/scripts/duck-yeah/sql/history_what_if_replay.sql", "summarySql": "/duck-yeah/source/scripts/duck-yeah/sql/history_what_if_summary.sql", "mappingSql": "/duck-yeah/source/scripts/duck-yeah/sql/history_what_if_mapping.sql", "runner": "/duck-yeah/source/scripts/duck-yeah/history_what_if.py", "guide": "/duck-yeah/source/history-what-if.md" }, "limits": [ "Synthetic eligibility paths are authored, not evidence this targeting is optimal.", "Current warehouse fields cannot reconstruct past knowledge without event or audit history.", "Qualification rates exclude missing or immature outcomes and report their count separately.", "Review hours are gross candidate-review capacity, not incremental cost, total Sales workload or an ROI claim.", "Email eligibility is a supplied company-policy decision, not consent or legal eligibility inferred by this tool.", "No enrichment, outbound contact or CRM write is performed by this tool.", "A planned randomized comparison is needed to estimate the assistance's causal effect." ] }